No Vote, No Plan, No Endgame.
Deepening fissures underscoring Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to go to war with Iran are evident even as the military story continues to unfold.
Indeed, we learned of the first U.S. casualties, amid more Gulf nations taking hits from Iranian drones and missiles. U.S.-Israeli bombs were hitting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard headquarters, targets in central Tehran and other cities without a full assessment of what has been destroyed or determination of who besides the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed. Temporary government fill-ins in Iran called Trump to say they should talk.
There is plenty of outright worry in Israel and throughout the region from Iranian missiles hitting hotels, fields, airports, three oil tankers, and other non-military targets at random. People in Europe and the U.S. remain on alert about the lone Iranian rebel cell that can seek revenge.
The fissures cross diplomatic, political, even moral lines, standing in for the debate that never happened before missiles were fired and jets launched.
They question the why, as separable from any issues of military efficiency and expertise, which all, friend and foe alike, praise as well an initial strike carried out by a military that clearly had spent time and practice to hone the attack plans. The sole military questions remaining involve degrading Iran’s ability to launch its own retributive missiles and when to halt the bombing.
The key arguments remain over a U.S. president seen eluding of legal, Constitutional restraints and the lack of any understandable, measurable goals. Are all of us subject to more Trump announcements of “obliteration” only to find ourselves once again “days away” from an Iranian threat?
The undercurrent of alarm says that Trump – pushed by Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu – wanted the attack all along and any negotiations with Iran were all but pretense. For his part, Trump continued to confuse, offering in the same day to “immunize” Iranian troops who turn on the country and to threaten them for having killed three U.S. troops in retaliation.
Iran is Bad, Trump is Good
Team Trump’s over simplistic argument is that Iran has been and remains a bad international player, therefore it should be punished. That’s it. Any other reasons offered to start a war now keep changing, but they are subordinate to Iran is Bad.
The array of those in the U,S., the Gulf or around the world who do not line up daily to defend whatever comes out of Trump’s mouth push a lack of congressional authority, critique what constituted an immediate need for this war amid ongoing “negotiations” towards limiting nuclear weapons development, and the lack of any plan for what comes next.
In fact, as with Trump policies about elections, Epstein, Venezuela, the “Donroe Doctrine,” or immigration concerns, it is past grievances rather than immediately demonstrable problems that get his attention. Even Trump’s biggest Republican defenders used television appearances to scoff over any lack of “immediate threat” when we have four decades of ire with Iran to settle.
If Democrats push this week for a too-late vote on allowing this Trump war, it’s not going to be a simply Republican-Democratic split. Too many MAGA fans backed Trump to stay out of open-ended war to gauge the outcome, except that it will be legislators voting about “Iran is Bad” against those who want separation of powers, even from a Congress that might support war with Iran on a less-hurried basis.
That concern is only heightened by having a Department of Homeland Security that has dismissed many of its anti-terrorism officials who had been assigned to Trump investigations to build up Homeland’s deportation campaign — all at a time when Congress has shut down non-deportation money to put limits on ICE enforcement.
Trump always seems to need to strike back at someone who has caused him harm in the past.
Where’s the SitRep?
Any television drama watcher knows we’re awaiting a Situation Report, a SitRep, to concisely update the status of this war project and to inform its key stakeholders what happens next. In this case, there won’t be one, other than a declaration of military might and a Trump-Netanyahu spotlight turn, because there is no plan for what happens next.
Personally, I’m awaiting Trump’s sure-to-come announcement that he needs to control Iran’s oil and minerals as well as its “obliterated” nuclear labs and missile factories.
What still is remarkable is that Donald Trump, who ignores populist demands about prices, immigration tactics, health policies and taxes at home, cites the empowerment of an extremely diverse Iranian public without access to arms to overturn the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s entrenched institutions. What still is surprising is that Trump believes an air war can deliver a fully functional replacement government structure that magically will bow to his wishes.
Amid decapitation of Iran’s leadership, we don’t even know who’s in charge of military decisions, diplomatic efforts or even who is authorizing food imports. Iran’s top national security official, Ali Larijani, announced that an interim committee would run the country.
We do know that Trump, the iconoclast, has broken another country and once again has no idea what to do next. That should shake us.
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