Days after the raid on Iran, it seems that intelligence services are settling on the idea that there was “severe” damage, if not a knockout. That seemed the message that Team Trump finally offered to members of Congress yesterday.
The haziness that has passed as formal bomb damage assessment this week stands in contrast to Donald Trump’s continuing, bombastic insistence that the bombing “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capacity — and that anyone who doubts that outcome is a fool who somehow hates the U.S. military and America’s dominance — and his own — in doing anything it wants in the world.
What that portends is less clear than the damage assessment, of course. Donald Trump says he wants U.S. officials to sit across a table from Iranian counterparts next week, though it is not at all clear to what end.
The logical topic would be a longer-term deal to halt nuclear weapons altogether, though Trump insists so long as he can strike Iran virtually at will, he doesn’t need a negotiated agreement.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei popped up in a video, perhaps from his bunker, to warn the U.S. about another attack, saying that Iran had delivered a hand slap in a hapless, pre-signaled missile launch that caused no injuries or damage on an American base in Qatar. Delusion knows no geographical bounds.
It appears from our citizen grandstands as if Trump just wants Iranian acknowledgement of his awesome powers — the same goal he seeks from both parties in Congress, from news accounts of his government, and from us.
Control of Information
It is exactly this information control that somehow has emerged as more pressing even than the would-be dangers of nuclear weapons spread, even to Iran, seen as a state sponsor of terrorism and a constant regional provocateur. After all, North Korea now has a nuclear capacity and we didn’t bomb its facilities, and just recently, we found U.S. diplomats caught up in de-escalating conflicts between Pakistan and India specially because each is a nuclear threat.
Just why is it so critical to Trump that we accept his instant assessment of obliteration rather than ferreting out what the situation is? Do we fear that whether Iran has yet more secret production facilities or that its operatives did succeed in moving containers of weapons-purified uranium before bombing began. Or is this all about ego alone, that Trump must be believed because Trump always is right?
Why do we believe that this is a much broader campaign for truth supremacy than only the damage assessment from a bombing run? This administration has a credibility problem that spans immigration, economics and trade, education, crime and issues affecting balance of power in government.
Hegseth’s Report
Even as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, finally offered a delayed briefing to senators yesterday and members of the House today. But even in doing so, the White House limited classified intelligence sharing with Congress after leaks of an early assessment undermined Trump’s claims of total destruction.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who testified in March that U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran was not moving to immediate deployment of a nuclear weapon, notably was absent.
The goal seems to put realistic assessment well behind Trump accolades, something that hardly will dissuade questions from Democrats at least.
Indeed, Hegseth opened a press conference before the congressional briefing by scolding journalists for printing or airing any information that differed from Trump’s assertions, asserting that reporting on a Defense Intelligence Agency document questioning the amount of damage was somehow critical of the gallantry of the B2 pilots who delivered the bombs. Caine made clear that the military leaves assessment of damage to intelligence as a follow-up of any action.
Frankly, I’d much rather know from these guys why Trump would tell a press conference at the NATO summit this week that he essentially granted permission to Iran to fire on an American airbase in Qatar, knowing the time and location.
The most useful assessments might require on-site visits by the International Atomic Energy Agency from the UN whose oversight Iran has resisted in recent years. Yesterday that group said centrifuges at Fordo were no longer functional, based on satellite photos.
Overall, there was more information about the strike, including the history of the heavy munitions involved, than about its results.
Might a finding of less than “severe” damage mean additional bombings, renewed conflict with Israel, or a more pointed need for substantive negotiation with Iran?
None of this addressed the questions that linger, including what comes next.
What intelligence change had made the Iranian nuclear threat imminent enough to justify the raid? Why did Trump ignore U.S. intelligence, or what must be done to make it credible to him? Why did Trump insist on not notifying or involving Congress, which has the Constitutional duty to declare war? How do we verify that the damage is as claimed? What do we want from Iran?
The nature of the questions makes clear that it is information about decision-making even more than the order to bomb Iran that is at issue.
Left unsaid: Congress lacks trust for Trump, and Trump has little use for a questioning Congress. Or the rest of us.
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