A week into the reordered Democratic presidential race and a zillion news commentaries later, the November elections now present themselves as a real contest, with renewed vigor, money and energy.
More even than a remarkable immediate surge of new, younger voter registrants reported by groups supporting Kamala Harris, there is a spirit of hope that is palpable that what had looked to be an oozing slide to return Donald Trump back to the White House has stopped altogether. Even early polling suggests that any lead for Trump effectively has disappeared.
With our divisive politics, our ever-shifting poll results and predictions, and ridiculous public campaign statements, all we really know is that the contest appears to have moved a bit toward Democrats and put more state outcomes in doubt. It remains a tight contest, largely because of the Electoral College system, and we should safely keep away from any talk of election landslides. Nevertheless, for Joe Biden to step out, and for Harris to all-but-secure delegate support, to force disorder in the Republican campaign plan, to prompt an instant outpouring of campaign money and for the race to even is quite an achievement for a single week.
There are dueling predictions about when a perceived “sugar high” of newness will wear off for Harris meeting up with obvious and real signs of voter enthusiasm that currently represent only a few days’ effort. Reports of volunteers by the thousands and phone call fund-raisers drawing tens of thousands likely can only boost momentum for Democrats in the next few weeks. Only this week and next will we start hearing any polling evidence — useful only for comparative direction.
At the same time, the familiar, if tired, insulting manner of Trump and running mate JD Vance look to be stuck with the exact number of supporters, unable to reach previous swing voters. Misogynic, racist and plain old weird attacks from Republican leaders are being called out as harshly discordant with recent state elections where issues like abortion rights appear to top even concerns about immigration issues or supermarket prices.
Rare Benefit from Chaotic Times
At this moment, we should be grateful that whatever else Biden’s departure decision means, the effect is for many who have been sitting on the sidelines to rejoin the election fight.
Strangely or predictably, the aura of participatory hope and inevitability — something each side has claimed at various times — has become the major benefit. This time it feels as if it is effective and brief in opposition to Trump and for Harris.
The renewed tied means that if this country wants what Trump is selling, it will have to work a bit more to say so.
We continue to see candidate overstatements about what they can get done. Harris is talking about signing a bill to restore abortion rights, but there is no indication that such a bill can gather a needed 60 votes in the Senate now or after November. Trump is simply confusing people by telling a Christian group that they “won’t have to vote” in the next election because he will have met all their goals in the next four years, and spends most of his time deriding Harris with increasingly mean and vague names while JD Vance, his vice presidential pick, is still being battered within Republican ranks as a bad choice for weird statements he apparently had intended to promote family thinking. Do Republicans think we’re voting on how Harris laughs rather than on Trump’s vows to undercut democratic norms and institutions? Will any of that result in lower supermarket prices?
By circumstance, we have a compressed election contest with clear and opposing ideological goals, views about democracy, the role of government and a host of specific issues from who should get a better deal on taxes and whether and how we stand with allies. Maybe limiting all elections to six months would help focus minds and change the tenor of the arguments.
It’s all happening in an environment in which Republican-majority state legislatures are still moving to limit the vote rather than encourage it, and in which legal maneuvering is well underway to challenge the vote count. We already are guaranteed a late outcome by decisions in states like Pennsylvania, whose Republican lawmakers once again have opposed counting mail-in ballots before the voting machine count. We could end up next Jan. 6 with Vice President Kamala Harris having to oversee the disputed certification of election results as House Republicans seek to do the electing themselves.
Those are tomorrow’s headaches. For today, here’s to hope — to be accompanied by actual work towards a successful election.
