If History Repeats Itself …

If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience?” – George Bernard Shaw

History provides countless examples of civilizations that reached great heights, only to decline due to a combination of internal and external pressures. One of the most striking cases is the Islamic Golden Age (8th – 14th century AD), a period of immense intellectual, scientific, and economic progress, propelling it as a global leader. However, this golden era was not immune to the forces of political fragmentation, religious conservatism, and a decline in scientific investment, all of which contributed to its gradual downfall.

Today, the United States stands as the world’s leading superpower, unmatched in technological innovation, military strength, and economic influence. Yet, I wonder if America, much like the Arab world centuries ago, is on a trajectory toward decline. While not an exact replica of the past, certain patterns emerge when comparing historical shifts in power. Are we witnessing the beginning of America’s stagnation, and if so, what lessons can we take from history to change its course?

The Rise and Decline of the Islamic Golden Age

The Islamic Golden Age saw the Arab world as a global leader in science, trade, and intellectual exploration. Scholars in cities like Baghdad, Cordoba, and Cairo made groundbreaking contributions across various fields.

• Mathematicians like Al-Khwarizmi introduced “Al-Gebra” and “Al-Gorithms”, the number zero, … laying the foundation for modern computing.
• Astronomers such as Al-Battani refined celestial calculations, while physicians like Ibn Sina and Al-Razi developed medical encyclopedias that shaped healthcare for centuries.
• Even chess came from the Arabs in Spain (Checkmate = “Sheik Matar”, or kill the king)
• Additionally, the translation movement at the House of Wisdom preserved and expanded upon foreign immigrants, Greek and Persian knowledge and culture, even influencing the European Renaissance.

Despite these achievements, the Arab world’s dominance did not last indefinitely. Over time, stricter religious interpretations stifled intellectual inquiry, replacing scientific curiosity with dogma. Political fragmentation led to internal conflicts and vulnerability to external invasions. The Mongols’ destruction of Baghdad in 1258 was a catastrophic blow, but it was not the sole reason for the decline. Economic stagnation and trade isolationism reduced the region’s global influence.

One of the most crucial factors was the shift from a relatively meritocratic governance system, where scholars and technocrats influenced policies, to a more autocratic model in which rulers prioritized military expansion over education and innovation. As the caliphs became figureheads, military warlords and viziers (Elon Musk?) took control, sidelining the very scholars and intellectuals who had driven progress. Sound familiar ?

Is the U.S. Making the Same Mistakes?

The parallels between the decline of the Islamic Golden Age and the challenges facing the United States today are striking. While the U.S. remains a global powerhouse, warning signs indicate potential stagnation.

• Political polarization has deepened, leading to gridlock and inefficiency.
• The defunding of public education and reduced support for scientific research mirror the decline in intellectual investment seen in the later years of the Islamic Golden Age.
• Protectionist economic policies, such as tariffs, threaten to weaken America’s financial dominance, much like the shifts in global trade routes that diminished the Arab world’s influence.
• The restriction of free thought and intellectual discourse, the manipulation of social conversation and selective access of preferred news media.
• Eradicating foreign influence and culture by blocking borders of less-suited points of view.

Historically, innovation thrives in environments that encourage diversity of ideas. Yet, increasing ideological (religious) rigidity in the U.S. threatens open debate, with both political extremes attempting to control academic and public discourse. If the U.S. continues down this path, it risks falling into the same trap as the later Islamic world, where suspicion toward foreign influences and rigid control over knowledge led to stagnation.

Perhaps the most alarming parallel is the growing focus on military expansion at the expense of domestic progress. Like the later Abbasid period, where vast resources were funnelled into military campaigns while intellectual investment waned, the U.S. has significantly increased defence spending while neglecting education and infrastructure and is asking its allies to do the same. Additionally, the centralization of power in the executive branch and weakening of democratic institutions raise (DOGE) concerns about whether the U.S. is shifting toward a governance model that prioritizes control over progress.

The Question for the Future

Will the U.S. recognize these warning signs and adapt, or will it follow the same well-worn path of decline? History tells us that no empire, no matter how powerful, is immune to stagnation. However, unlike past civilizations, the U.S. has the benefit of hindsight. By investing in education, fostering open discourse, and prioritizing scientific advancement over military expansion, it may still alter its trajectory.

Moreover, just as the economic collaboration between the Arab world and Europe once fueled the latter’s rise and fortune, a shifting global order could see Europe strengthening as the U.S. isolates itself. If America withdraws from the global stage, will Europe seek new trade routes and alternative alliances to grow stronger in its place? The future is unwritten, but history provides a stark warning: greatness is not guaranteed, and decline is often the result of choices made in complacency.

Conclusion & Call to Action

The lessons of history are clear: societies that abandon their commitment to knowledge, innovation, and open discourse often face stagnation and decline. The U.S. stands at a crossroads, with the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of past civilizations.

It is up to policymakers, business leaders, and everyday citizens to recognize these patterns and take action.

Will the U.S. be capable of learning from experience or will history repeat itself?

Create a PDF