There has been a flood of commentary spilled this week as Donald Trump visits Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping today, most focusing on the power dynamics between the two.
Not unfairly, Trump, notorious abuser of the “cards” analogy in poker, is seen as going into this summit with a much weaker hand than he might have wished, forcing a significant scaling back in what Trump would have sought to achieve at such a summit.
The specter of a stubborn war in Iran with no easy out, the abandonment of U.S. allies, Trump’s diminishing popularity at home over the resulting high prices, and the recognition that Trump flies without a destination in mind all contribute to a perceived mismatch with a China whose alternative global influence leadership seems on the upswing.
Rather than a summit after a successful, quick gutting of Iran, Trump basically finds himself in the position of asking for Chinese help in the Middle East and on some kind of normalization of trade and business investment after months and years of battering China and its business practices.
It is no surprise that Trump will face pressures to abandon Taiwan and give way in the South China Sea, amid other concessions. It is fact that even close U.S. allies, including Canada, have moved decisively to improved ties with China, both in business and in global affairs.
Trump’s isolationist, dictatorial, Might-Makes-Right approach to transactional foreign affairs pushes aside strategic approaches for short-term wins, but even those are unclear now when he has lost so much footing abroad and at home.
America First thinking will butt into China First insistence.
Measuring Success
Of course, there are few objective measures of how each leader will describe a successful outcome to these talks.
They always will find something on which to agree, like space exploration, or the planeload of corporate executives that Trump is taking with him will find useful business contacts that both sides will hail as some kind of progress.
Or they can always say they had full and frank talks, probably never a bad thing, but certainly shy of any practical goals that affect you and me.
What I keep hearing, however, is Trump’s disregard for his opponent in his dealings.
It cannot go as unheard that the very Iranians with whom Trump said last week that he was near agreement have sent him a negotiation response that Trump publicly describes as “garbage.” It’s an unneeded slap that neither advances U.S. interests nor helps solve the puzzle of the Middle East’s ever-present desire to self-destruct.
The art of the business deal that a real or imagined real estate mogul might press for is all about power, but the art of the diplomatic deal starts with some at least public respect for the opponent. The goal always is to reach a deal, which is why it requires art, not muscle alone.
In this trip to China, Trump is running into a determined, focused, patient counterpart who has the ability and realistic organization for both diplomacy and military might, as well as economic power galore.
Trump is arriving in China with U.S. farmers believing that his trade strategy has ruined their biggest market, with small businesses and consumers upset over the high prices of his anti-China tariff policies, with U.S. allies suddenly willing to sit back and watch Trump struggle. Trump is facing significantly adverse election prospects for his party and programs in November, and backlash across party lines against his usurpation of power that is benefiting himself and family over that of voters. Trump is deepening racial, religious, and education divides. And he is borrowing from the Chinese approach to demand financial return for government support for private industry, as represented by the array of business leaders on his plane.
The one thing of which we can be sure is that the worst job we can consider is to be the person who must brief a Trump who shows us daily that he cannot take in information that is not his own.
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