Major Obstacles Remain Despite Trump’s Announcement.
Donald Trump has announced that, suddenly, there is a peace roadmap in place for Gaza. Of course, the actual parties, Hamas and Israel, have yet to do anything that shows they agree.
Indeed, if first indications are to be believed, this announcement is once again premature, short on practical, enforceable timelines, and entirely dependent on whatever good will there is between the warring partners to abide by a written agreement. Immediately, for example, each side disagreed about what the words require.
But, somehow, we’re expected to simply accept that peace dealings that did not include the combatants, that were negotiated by backroom exchanges among representatives from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, that require steps that each side has refused, suddenly all disappear because Donald Trump has declared that there is an agreement in place.
Hours after the announcement, the Israeli Defense Forces killed two Hamas operatives in aerial strikes after they were said to be “advancing attacks” against IDF troops.
What has held up any progress in Gaza has been Hamas insistence on holding onto its weapons, and Israeli occupation of at least half of Gaza, recently extended to 70 percent.
There is no neutral “technocratic” government for Gaza, nor a civilian police force, nor a documented inventory of weapons or discussion of how arms would be secured from Hamas fighters. Until we see something different, this feels like wishful thinking – or more self-congratulatory diversion by Trump from uglier, unsettled matters in the region and at home.
The Terms
According to the announcement, Hamas has agreed to turn over its weapons, including missiles and small arms, to a civilian Palestinian police agency yet to be created, but prefaced the vow on a total halt to Israeli military actions and withdrawal of the IDF forces. Israel, of course, said the weapons need to be turned over first, which is exactly where we have been for months.
Removal of conflict in Gaza would be a breakthrough towards calming conflict overall in the Middle East, since Iran uses Israeli occupation of Gaza as a pretext for its attacks on Israel. Of course, Iran also wants Israel eliminated entirely, and surely to halt its actions against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and against Palestinians in the West Bank. More than 1,200 people have been killed in the territory since the cease-fire last October, according to the Gaza health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
Trump seemed satisfied simply to announce a “HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT” of Hamas without a moment of hesitation or question. He also didn’t do the work to get to this point. That was left to his “Board of Peace,” named for him but being run by Tony Blair, former British prime minister, who, in turn, relied on intermediaries. What could be misunderstood here? Even the Board of Peace folks were saying any first moves require care and monitoring for verification.
Hamas spoke through the press to its followers. In Israel, the most right-leaning ministers reminded all that they intend to build settlements in Gaza. Trump still imagines Palestinians accepting self-deportation to somewhere never named to allow international development of what he sees as prime beachfront real estate.
Simple answers don’t automatically work for complicated problems. One would think that by now, even the Trump administration would understand that.
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